Active, above-normal hurricane season predicted for eastern and central Pacific

MIAMI, Florida (HawaiiNewsNow) – Forecasters with the National Weather Service say an above-average hurricane season is likely this year in the North Pacific ocean.

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At a press conference at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla., Thursday morning, forecasters said there’s a high probability of 5 to 13 tropical cyclones of at least tropical depression strength in the central North Pacific basin between 140 degrees west longitude and the International Date Line.

The forecast is well above the average of 4 to 5 tropical cyclones. Last year, there were 4 tropical cyclones in the central Pacific; the forecast called for a normal to below average season of 1 to 4 tropical cyclones.

Eastern Pacific forecast also above normal

In the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude, forecasters said there is a 70% probability of:

These are also above the averages of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes for the eastern Pacific.

Hurricane season getting underway

Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific began on May 15, while the central Pacific season begins on June 1. The peak of the season occurs during the months of July, August and September. The season ends in both basins on November 30.

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El Nino a major factor in this year’s forecast

According to data from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, El Nino conditions are expected through the hurricane season, meaning that there will be warmer sea surface temperatures which lead to higher tropical cyclone development and activity.

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Strong El Nino conditions are especially associated dramatically elevated levels of tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific. There were 16 tropical cyclones in the basin in 2015, which had one of the strongest El Nino events on record.

What the forecast doesn’t predict

The actual number of tropical cyclones will depend on the daily weather conditions, which are difficult to predict far in advance. The hurricane season forecast also does not predict whether a tropical cyclone will make landfall.

Even in below-average hurricane season, it only takes one tropical cyclone to cause a disaster.

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