Coral decline could cost Hawaii $3B in recreational losses

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – Coral decline caused by climate change could cost Hawaii residents up to $3 billion in lost economic activity by the year 2100, a new study shows.

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The University of Hawaii Manoa College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resilience led the study which was published in Ecological Economics.

Researchers used a sophisticated biophysical simulation called the Atlantis ecosystem to predict changes to coral cover across nearshore reef systems.

They then connected the ecological shifts with a recreation demand model to calculated estimated losses. The analysis captured recreational uses for swimming, snorkeling, and diving.

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They determined the earliest and most severe losses could happen along the leeward coasts of Hawaii Island and Maui.

They predict the recreational losses would then spread north to Oahu by mid-century.

Projections showed a high-emissions climate scenario would result in a near-total collapse of nearshore reefs by 2100. Some windward coastlines would see signs of partial recovery late in the century under a low-emissions scenario.

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