First Alert Forecast: Hurricane Lowell will initially bring big surf and then turn right west of Kauai County this weekend

News admin September 4, 2026 0 Comments

First Alert Forecast: Hurricane Lowell will initially bring big surf and then turn right west of Kauai County this weekend

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – This is shaping up to be a big weather event for Kauai and Niihau as Lowell turns right this Labor Day weekend. Prepare with aloha before Sunday.

Before the main moisture field arrives, the local gradient between strong high pressure to our north and the approaching low to our south will squeeze trade winds up significantly.

Enhanced Trade Winds (Thursday through Saturday):

Expect breezy to locally strong trade winds statewide (gusting 25–35+ mph in windward areas and mountain passes) well ahead of the storm. As the low moves closer over the weekend, trades will begin backing to the northeast and east-northeast. Some areas will be more protected and sheltered- may not see as much trade gusts.

Building Surf: Tropical energy ahead of the low will push moderate-to-large long-period swells toward south and east shores starting late Thursday and building through Saturday. Expect high, choppy surf along east-facing exposures and rising south/southeast swell reaching advisory levels across south shores ahead of the weekend.

Rough Overview & Timeline:

Thursday and Friday stay breezy under strong trade wind flow, with passing windward showers and sunny leeward skies. As the tropical low approaches and turns, conditions undergo a sharp transition from Sunday into early next week.

Also big waves and sets will linger as Lowell peaked as a strong category 5 hurricane. Kauai, and Niihau will sit in that dangerous front-right quadrant “dirty side of the storm.” Oahu on the edge with exposed south and west shores seeing possible impacts. As the system makes its northward turn west of the state, standard trade winds will collapse and shift to strong southerlies and southeasters. This forces high wind gusts, heavy rain bands, and building southwest-to-south swells directly into normally sheltered leeward coastlines and south-facing valleys.

Big Island & Maui County:

Timing: Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.

Impacts: Tropical moisture arrives first on Sunday. Expect muggy conditions, squally downpours, and gusty winds through island channels, gradually stabilizing by Monday afternoon as the core energy shifts west.

Oahu:

Timing: Sunday night through Monday night. Outer bands and winds could be picking up as Lowell tracks north. Impacts: Deteriorating rapidly late Sunday evening as outer bands move in. Peak southeasterly wind gusts, torrential rain bands, urban flash flooding, and heavy south-shore surf will impact the island all through Labor Day Monday before tapering late Monday night.

**Kauai & Niihau** biggest impacts likely

Timing: Late Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon.

Impacts: Sitting furthest west, you’ll feel the brunt of the front-right quadrant longest. Continuous heavy rain will pin over interior terrain, causing severe runoff down major watersheds (Hanalei, Wailua, Waimea), alongside high coastal surf and strong southerly winds through Tuesday afternoon.

Take time before Sunday evening to clear storm drains, secure items on south- and east-facing lanais, and ensure emergency kits are set before outer bands arrive.

View the latest weather conditions here.

Download the HNN Weather app from the Apple App Store or Google Play for the latest updates from your First Alert Weather Team: chief meteorologist Jennifer Robbins and weather anchors Guy Hagi, Dan Cooke, Ben Gutierrez, and Billy V.