First Alert Forecast: Fausto is still a hurricane but will likely be downgraded to a tropical storm soon; what can Hawaii expect?

News admin July 27, 2026 0 Comments

First Alert Forecast: Fausto is still a hurricane but will likely be downgraded to a tropical storm soon; what can Hawaii expect?

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – Happy Sunday! Here’s the latest on Hurricane Fausto….

We are in good shape overall. The storm is starting to show signs of weakening. Satellite imagery shows Fausto has lost its eye, and its thunderstorms are becoming more lopsided as dry air continues to work its way into the storm. Maximum sustained winds have dropped to around 85 mph, making it a Category 1 hurricane, and forecasters expect that weakening trend to continue over the next couple of days.

The forecast track remains very consistent. Fausto is expected to continue moving west and pass north of the Hawaiian Islands Tuesday night into Wednesday.

That’s important because the strongest winds and heaviest rain are still expected to stay well north of the state.

As Fausto gets closer, it’ll encounter even drier air and increasing wind shear, which should weaken it into a tropical storm before it reaches our longitude. By midweek, the strongest winds are expected to be concentrated on the north side of the storm, away from the islands.

Confidence remains high that the center of the storm will pass north of the islands Tuesday into Wednesday while continuing to weaken.

Fausto has already started losing organization. The eye has disappeared on satellite imagery as dry air works into the storm, and we expect that weakening trend to continue over the next couple of days. By the time it reaches the longitude of Hawaii, it’s expected to be a tropical storm, with its strongest winds and heaviest rain remaining north of the state.

That doesn’t mean we’ll have zero impacts. The biggest concern will be the ocean. Long-period swells generated by Fausto are already on the way and will continue building through Monday.

East-facing shores could reach High Surf Advisory levels as early as Monday, with the potential for warning-level surf Tuesday into early Wednesday. Dangerous rip currents and powerful shore break will make ocean conditions hazardous, even though the storm stays offshore. North shores may also see a modest increase in surf as Fausto passes by.

On land, moderate to breezy trade winds will continue through Monday, bringing passing showers mainly to windward and mountain communities during the overnight and early morning hours. While the forecast keeps the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall north of the islands, forecasters caution that even small changes in Fausto’s track or weakening rate could affect local impacts.

At this point, isolated gusts up to around 40 mph and periods of heavier showers remain possible, especially across the northern end of the island chain. But mainly stay over open waters.

The National Weather Service is also reminding everyone that now is a great time to review your hurricane preparedness plan. Even though the current forecast is favorable, it’s always best to be ready during hurricane season with enough food, water, medications, and essential supplies to last at least two weeks during hurricane season and with natural disasters possible throughout the year it is good practice to review.

Looking ahead, once Fausto moves west of the islands later this week, we’ll return to a drier and breezy trade wind pattern beginning Thursday and continuing into next weekend.

The First Alert Weather Team will continue tracking Fausto around the clock and bring you the latest updates as we head into the new week.

View the latest weather conditions here.

Download the HNN Weather app from the Apple App Store or Google Play for the latest updates from your First Alert Weather Team: chief meteorologist Jennifer Robbins, meteorologist Drew Davis, and weather anchors Guy Hagi, Ben Gutierrez, and Billy V.