Storm approaching Hawaii has 90% chance of developing into tropical cyclone
HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – A tropical system about 1,000 miles east-southeast of Hawaii is becoming increasingly organized.
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The National Hurricane Center now gives the system a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days, with possible development as early as midweek.
If a tropical storm forms over the central Pacific, it would be given the Hawaiian name Lala.
Why the next 48 hours are important
While the latest model trends are increasingly concerning, there is still significant uncertainty.
Several models suggest the system could become better organized with a more defined circulation by Tuesday afternoon. From there, some guidance shows it strengthening into a tropical storm or possibly a weak hurricane by Thursday into Friday.
Some early model runs are bringing the system near or even over the Hawaiian islands as early as Saturday.
The next 48 to 72 hours will be especially important. Once we get a better handle on the storm’s initial position and circulation, we should have a much better idea of where it could go.
Uncertainty surrounding the storm
Because the system has not yet formed, its exact starting position and structure remain unclear. Where the storm’s circulation ultimately consolidates within the broad area of low pressure will help determine its future track.
The system is also embedded within a larger trough, adding another layer of uncertainty. A steering ridge building to the north is expected to turn the system generally westward toward Hawaii, but how close it gets, how strong it becomes, and exactly when it arrives remain uncertain.
Potential impact to the islands
Saturday and Sunday are now being watched as potential First Alert Weather Days.
Model guidance has been persistent in showing a tropical cyclone approaching or potentially impacting Hawaii, which could bring stronger and shifting winds, heavier rain and thunderstorms, rougher seas and potentially elevated surf.
The magnitude of any impacts will depend heavily on the system’s eventual track and strength.
This is the time to be aware, not alarmed.
It’s a good idea to make sure your hurricane plan and emergency supplies are ready, just in case, while we wait for the system to actually develop and the forecast to become more defined.
View the latest weather conditions here.
Download the HNN Weather app from the Apple App Store or Google Play for the latest updates from your First Alert Weather Team: chief meteorologist Jennifer Robbins, meteorologist Drew Davis, and weather anchors Guy Hagi, Ben Gutierrez, and Billy V.
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