First Alert Forecast: Tracking developing storm “Nolo” that could bring significant rain to Hawaii Island and Maui County

News admin September 22, 2026 0 Comments

First Alert Forecast: Tracking developing storm “Nolo” that could bring significant rain to Hawaii Island and Maui County

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – ⚠️Friday will be a First Alert Weather Day for the Eastern islands of Hawaii with the Big Island of Hawaii getting the most significant rain according to today’s weather models.

This season has been full of storms, now: Polo, Odalys, and “Nolo” – as Nolo’s name indicates— *crowded*- with multiple storms over the Central and Eastern Pacific and already too much rain this season for Hawaii Island.

Something we’re watching closely: the remnants of TD 15-E south of Hawaiʻi are getting better organized and could soon become Nolo.

The National Hurricane Center gives it a 70% chance of developing over the next 48 hours and 90% over the next 7 days.

For our ʻohana on the Big Island, this is one to watch. Most guidance keeps the system south of Hawaiʻi, but there’s still a LOT of uncertainty about exactly how close it gets.

Deep tropical moisture could reach the Big Island as early as Wednesday, bringing the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds and thunderstorms—especially windward and eastern areas.

Some models are showing extremely wet scenarios, with 20+ inches possible in parts of the western islands. That is NOT a forecast right now—just one model scenario, and those numbers can change significantly.

We will need to stay First Alert weather aware, especially across the Big Island and Maui County, as we get a better handle on Nolo’s track.

But as early as Wednesday rain could pick up and really become substantial Thursday into Friday for Hawaii Island. Stay tuned.

View the latest weather conditions here.

Download the HNN Weather app from the Apple App Store or Google Play for the latest updates from your First Alert Weather Team: chief meteorologist Jennifer Robbins and weather anchors Guy Hagi, Dan Cooke, Ben Gutierrez, and Billy V.