First Alert Forecast: Lowell intensifies and expected to initially track south before it turns right

News admin September 2, 2026 0 Comments

First Alert Forecast: Lowell intensifies and expected to initially track south before it turns right

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – There are two category 4 hurricanes over the Pacific: Karina and Lowell. With a strong area of high pressure to the north and Lowell providing low pressure to the south, gusty trade winds will develop. Breezy trade winds will ramp up tonight and become strong and gusty Wednesday afternoon, with some of the typically windy areas potentially seeing gusts over 50 mph. Trade showers will favor windward and mauka areas, especially overnight into the early morning hours.

Hurricane Lowell is now about 500 miles southeast of Hilo and is expected to pass south of the islands Wednesday through Friday. As Lowell gets closer, the pressure gradient between the hurricane and strong high pressure to our north will tighten, bringing stronger trades and potentially advisory-level winds.

The good news is the hurricane-force core is expected to remain well south of the state.

The bigger question is what happens this weekend. Models continue to show a wide range of possibilities for Lowell as it eventually turns north.

Most solutions keep the system west of the main Hawaiian Islands, but there are still some scenarios that bring Lowell closer to the state. Hurricane Karina is also tracking west toward the region before turning northwest and passing north of Hawaii.

Direct impacts from either storm are currently considered unlikely, but there is enough uncertainty that it’s important to stay updated through the week.

For the immediate forecast, showers increase tonight as a moist trough moves in, then decrease late Wednesday as that feature moves west. Thursday and Friday should look more like typical trade-wind weather, although the stronger winds will carry showers quickly across the islands, giving some leeward areas a better chance of brief showers.

The latest NHC track shows signs of turning by day 5, we are hoping Lowell will turn LATER rather than sooner. Some models take it just offshore of Kauai by Monday into Tuesday. How far? There is still lots of uncertainty, it is due to an upper-level trough developing to our north that gives Lowell a weakening to turn into. As it takes a path of least resistance, storms tend to want to turn into cooler air and lower pressure. With that low pressure developing it ultimately weakens the high and allows the storm to turn. Hopefully, when it is well past the islands. The models still don’t have a grip on it because it highly depends on the strength of the low and how soon it develops. Stay tuned.

And there’s another storm to watch down the road: Tropical Storm Marie has formed off the coast of Mexico, but it’s roughly 10 days away from potentially approaching Hawaii, so there’s very little value in focusing on that system yet.

View the latest weather conditions here.

Download the HNN Weather app from the Apple App Store or Google Play for the latest updates from your First Alert Weather Team: chief meteorologist Jennifer Robbins and weather anchors Guy Hagi, Dan Cooke, Ben Gutierrez, and Billy V.