First Alert Forecast: Hold on, gusty trades will pick up

News admin October 16, 2026 0 Comments

First Alert Forecast: Hold on, gusty trades will pick up

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – Trade winds are picking up across the islands, and we’re looking at a wetter pattern developing over the next several days.

A strong area of high pressure north of Hawaii will continue to strengthen and move eastward, keeping our trade winds in the moderate to breezy range through much of next week. Expect some gusty conditions, especially in exposed areas and around the higher terrain.

We’ll also see a few pulses of moisture moving through, bringing periods of increased showers. The first arrives Friday afternoon and evening, with showers possible statewide.

A second, potentially stronger round of moisture is expected late Sunday into Monday, with the greatest shower activity favoring the eastern islands, including Maui County and the Big Island. Windward and mountain areas will see the best chance for showers, especially overnight and during the early morning hours.

Looking farther ahead, another area of moisture could approach next Thursday, but confidence is still low. Forecasters are also watching an upper-level disturbance that could strengthen around the middle of next week.

If that system develops, it could pull additional tropical moisture toward the islands and raise the potential for heavier rainfall.

It’s too early to determine how significant that threat could become, so we’ll be watching how the forecast evolves.

For the ocean, surf along north and west-facing shores will build to near or slightly above seasonal levels Friday into Saturday before gradually easing. South shore surf could also rise above seasonal levels into Friday before slowly declining.

East-facing shores will get rougher as the trade winds strengthen, with surf building above seasonal levels this weekend and continuing into early next week.

And those stronger winds will also affect local waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through Saturday evening.

View the latest weather conditions here.

Download the HNN Weather app from the Apple App Store or Google Play for the latest updates from your First Alert Weather Team: chief meteorologist Jennifer Robbins and weather anchors Guy Hagi, Dan Cooke, Ben Gutierrez, and Billy V.