First Alert Forecast: Developing storm “Moke” will be south of the islands

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – Another tropical system is making its way toward the Central Pacific, but the overall setup is shaping up to be far more manageable in terms of severe wind. Tropical Depression 2C—expected to organize into Tropical Storm Moke—is running into atmospheric speed bumps that will keep it from building into a major hurricane. Moderate upper-level wind shear and pockets of dry air are tilting the system and disrupting its convective core. While the system won’t pack a damaging wind punch, its broad footprint means it will act like a giant, moisture-rich sponge moving across the region.

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The primary impact to watch closely is tropical rainfall. Moisture bands will begin moving over Hawaii as the system passes south of the archipelago, bringing the risk of flash flooding and mudslides—especially across ground that remains saturated from previous rainfall. Residents across all islands should keep an eye on upcoming flood watches and marine advisories as the storm tracks westward.

Prelim County-by-County Breakdown & Timeline

Hawaii County (Big Island): Impacts are projected to begin late Saturday night and peak through Sunday. As the lead outer bands sweep in, expect heavy tropical downpours capable of producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with higher localized totals along windward slopes. Given already saturated soils, flash flooding, stream overflow, and rockslides along major roadways are the main hazards, alongside rough south- and east-facing surf.

Maui County (Maui, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe): Conditions will deteriorate Sunday into early Monday morning. Deep tropical moisture will push across the county, bringing periods of heavy rainfall, isolated thunder, and gusty winds through mountain passes. Low-lying area ponding, localized flash flooding in steep gulches, and dangerous sea conditions will be the primary concerns.

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City and County of Honolulu (Oahu): Moisture arrives Sunday night and continues through Monday. Expect a muggy airmass accompanied by passing squalls and localized heavy downpours. While widespread wind damage is not anticipated, short-duration intense rainfall could cause urban drainage flooding, slick highway conditions during commutes, and strong rip currents along exposed shores.

Kauai County (Kauai & Niihau): The trailing edge of the moisture envelope is expected to sweep through Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Remnant tropical moisture will bring scattered heavy showers, humid conditions, and breezy easterly trade winds before the system gradually pulls away to the west.

View the latest weather conditions here.

Download the HNN Weather app from the Apple App Store or Google Play for the latest updates from your First Alert Weather Team: chief meteorologist Jennifer Robbins and weather anchors Guy Hagi, Dan Cooke, Ben Gutierrez, and Billy V.

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