First Alert Forecast: A developing storm ‘Moke’ or ‘Iselle’ could impact the islands this weekend

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – The tropics not giving us much of a break behind Lala!

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Weather models don’t have a grasp of this system yet. The early runs have been quite aggressive but others showing less impacts with a south track. Once we get the center of the system, we will have more confidence in its path, track along the islands and intensity. But one message the models are all giving, we should be prepared especially with the already saturated grounds so any additional heavy rain could be a concern.

Tracking Invest 90E: What You Need to Know

We are closely monitoring a new area of concern in the Central Pacific designated as Invest 90E.

The National Hurricane Center currently gives this system a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation over both the next 48 hours and 7 days. Should it strengthen into a tropical storm, it will earn the name Moke. It is on the other side of 140W along Eastern Pacific: Iselle.

Here is the current breakdown and what to expect:

System Status & Potential Strength: Showers and thunderstorm activity continue to organize around a broad low-pressure area well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. While environmental conditions are favorable for development, long-range guidance suggests this could potentially be a weaker system overall, though it still demands close attention.

Model Guidance & Uncertainty: Numerical computer models are still ironing out the exact track and intensity details. While a general trend shows the system moving westward to west-northwestward—possibly passing south of the state similarly to recent Hurricane/Tropical Storm Lala or Iselle (2014)—forecast uncertainty remains high until a definitive center forms.

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Potential Timing & Impacts: The earliest fringe effects could reach the Big Island as early as Saturday, with potential weather changes spreading across the rest of the island chain into Sunday and early next week.

Even if the core stays offshore or the system remains weak, it could still bring deep tropical moisture, heavy rain, localized flooding, and high surf.

No Advisories Yet: There are currently no tropical watches or warnings in effect. Official forecast cones will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center once the system officially forms into a tropical depression or storm.

Preparation Time: With recovery efforts still fresh from Lala, use this time to re-check your emergency supplies. Restock key essentials (water, non-perishable food, batteries, flashlights) and secure any loose outdoor items. I know this is a tough week for Hawaii Island and all across Hawaii impacted by the storms. With a strengthening El Nino, we have learned this season we must be prepared and Lala taught us it doesn’t need to make landfall for us to see major impacts.

Be safe and stay diligent. Wishing you and your ohana the very best.

View the latest weather conditions here.

Download the HNN Weather app from the Apple App Store or Google Play for the latest updates from your First Alert Weather Team: chief meteorologist Jennifer Robbins and weather anchors Guy Hagi, Dan Cooke, Ben Gutierrez, and Billy V.

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